Rain On The Desert

Donald Trump: Rainmaker or a blunder in disguise?

Last time it was raining in Gaza, it meant no good for the Palestinians. Source: Reuters

Images of celebrating Palestinians circled the internet on the Wednesday evening as news of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza went out. The festivities might have been premature as at the moment of writing this introduction, Israel is yet to ratify the deal.

However, mediators are assuring us that the deal will go through. Already touted as victory by Trump, Biden, majority of Western leaders and surprisingly Hamas, Iran, Russia and China as well, the ceasefire deal looks like a unicorn - a compromise that satisfies both sides.

I believe in many things, but unicorns are not one of them. Today I will take a look at the ceasefire deal. If something looks too good to be true on the surface, it is usually the case.

Despite having good visibility on the details of the deal, not one “geopolitical analyst” was brave enough to actually analyze the deal and forecast what can happen. I am, so click subscribe below and follow me through the meanders of the Gaza ceasefire. Your favorite pundit is too scared to go there.

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Deal Structure

The most important part of every deal is structure. It is structure that determines if the deal is successful. And it is structure that shows who holds the cards. It is only logical to star the analysis of the ceasefire with deal structuring.