Prediction market betting
#1 How to make money on your beliefs
Hello anons! Welcome to the brave new world where you can literally make money on anything. And no I’m not talking today about selling feet pics on onlyfans. I’m talking about making money on your own beliefs and convictions. Yes, today you can literally bet on not only sports and elections, but also on war developments, broader politics topics, movie box offices, next Billboard 100 top songs, crypto markets or next Fed interest rate hike / drop. Not to mention high profile criminal cases or timing of next volcanic eruption. Hell you can even bet on some guys next functional sperm count results. Seriously, check this out here. Opportunities are endless and you would be a fool not to take them.
That’s what I’m doing. I’ll take you on a journey through my bets and beliefs. I’ll show you my convictions and analyze markets that I bet on. I’ll show you that you too can make money if you are smart enough to see through FOMO hysteria and webs of MSM narratives. Strap on for weekly analysis, hot market updates and Q&As.
Disclaimer
If you take MSM news at face value and believe main narratives without doubt this is not the place for you. MSM are worthless. If you want to make real money you need to have your own convictions on direction of the world. You need to be immune to FOMO.
MSM are only signals telling you that something has happened. You need to make your own mind of the consequences. Mainstream analyses are worthless – they have negative alpha as everyone can read them. They are priced in. You need to make your own research. You need to look at the big picture and develop a framework that fits your convictions. That’s the only way to be profitable long-term.
How the platform works
There are quite a few platforms to trade prediction markets – biggest are Polymarket and Kalshi.
Will not go into detail on how to start trading as you have quite extensive guides on the websites. Follow every step and you should be ready to trade in under 30 min.
All prediction markets work in a similar fashion – it’s not like sports betting where you have a bookie that quotes you the rates. Meaning you do not play against the house, you play against other people on the market. To bet on any given market you have 2 choices:
Buy “yes” on a question
Buy “no” on a question
Each of the options can cost between $0 and $1 – quoted in cents it represents % chance of the event happening / not happening. In other words, sum of “yes” + “no” prices equals $1 and in the end one of these options will be worth $1 while the other will be worthless. In reality depending on the liquidity, it happens that during the lifetime of the markets this sum does not equal $1, but in the end one of the options will always equal $1. On a tangible example, if you bought a “yes” option on Donald Trump winning 2016 elections for $0.05, you would have received $1, so initial $0.05 bet + $0.95 profit. If you bet $10, you would have gotten $200 ($10 initial bet + $190 profit). If you bought “no”, you would have lost all the capital.
Newsletter content
Here comes the juicy part. Why should you pay $10 per month for my writing? Well in short, because one trade will give you higher returns than this monthly cost. In long let’s jump into details.
Once a week there will be a free post for every subscriber that covers general trends, hot markets, some juicy returns from last week and general outlook for the future. This will give you a glimpse of my writing style, convictions and highlight topics for paid posts. From time to time you may also see some of the best bets I’ve made based on the paid analyses. So in essence this will be your weekly global events digest straight to your inbox every Monday morning.
Once or twice a week depending on the global events there will be post/s for paid subscribers with deep dives into the hottest global events with overview, detailed analysis of various sources, long term view (general framework of my convictions) and possible bets on prediction markets. I’ll also specify which position I personally took (thus they are subject to change in the future). You will have an extensive analysis of a given global events coupled with sources that you can check yourself and general framework that was used to come to a decision. So basically for 10 bucks you will have 4-8 deep dives per month with each of them giving you opportunity to earn substantially more.
From time to time I’ll also post more general stuff regarding global (or regional) situation and my take on it. This will be the basis for future analyses and will give you necessary perspective on future global (or regional) developments.
I’ll let you see for yourself - first few posts will be free to give you a sample of what you will miss if you don’t subscribe. You will be able to see that I don’t only talk big, you will have real examples of my predictions.
That’s all for today. I’ll see you Monday for weekly update and some juicy market updates later on. Have a great weekend regardless of MSM noise and start making money on your beliefs. Especially if you are aware of the current state of affairs and narratives.