Post Mortem and Musings on Election

Retrospect on Apple x OpenAI and AI Safety Bill, Short Election Update

We have 17 days left till the election. While a lot of politically involved people are sitting on pins and needles, reality is not much will happen now. Everything was said and done; of course, candidates will rally a lot and appear for a few more interviews, but on baseline it will not move the needle much. Seems like a perfect time to write my first second piece on elections and summarize my thinking.

Elections are probably the market with the most available public information, where there is no much edge to have. Polls, models, aggregates, all is done in public with daily updates. That is why there will be no deep dive with odds disparity at the end - the market is quite efficient. But it does not stop me from sharing my thoughts.

With elections this close I will write more about them both here and on X. I also plan to bet some election derivatives in November and on election day and generate some trading profit. Timing is pretty good on this, by elections the Israeli retaliation markets will have been resolved and I should have a nice war chest ready to deploy.

Today besides musings on elections (I hope that Aswath Damodaran will not be mad that I partly borrowed his blog name, I really respect his work) I will also do a long overdue post mortem on the two previous deep dives: Apple x OpenAI and AI Safety Bill. It is always good to put the thesis under scrutiny after resolution.

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Post Mortem

I will start with retrospect on the deep dives. I have a nice mix as one of the bets hit while the other was a miss in the end. While missing does not indicate being wrong, we are dealing with probabilistic analysis, having both hit and miss to analyze should give a nice perspective on the state of my thoughts.