Population Decline

Are we heading towards a massive recession?

Source: James Ferguson

Doom! Recession! Total societal collapse! If you consume any media you have probably seen these headlines. Be it Elon Musk, The Economist or Peter Zeihan, they all warn us that a decrease in fertility rate will soon lead to a population decrease that will in effect result in massive economic depression and possibly a collapse of our civilization. But will it?

Sure, on surface level the calculation is simple - to produce, invest and consume you need people; and less people means less of everything. Global depression confirmed. However, if you look beneath the surface, the situation is not so simple anymore (like anything in geopolitics and economics being honest).

In the recent months I have seen many analysts, pundits and even celebrities making the point that if we do not reproduce at bigger scale, we are essentially doomed. With this article I want to throw down the gauntlet.

I am sure that you have an opinion of your own on the topic. But how hard did you actually think about it? My bet is not that hard. Subscribe below and see the only piece that goes deeper into the topic.

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It Is The Macroeconomy, Stupid!

All the doom and gloom is based on three main arguments:

1. Fertility rates are dropping below replacement level and the downward trend will be sustained.

2. With less workforce GPDs will drop causing long-term recessions.

3. Due to decreased tax revenues (point 2.) and increased longevity, social security will collapse.

All three are entangled. Also all three are based on *assumptions*. How strong are these assumptions? It depends.