A Marriage Out of Sense?

The potential merger of Honda and Nissan

Auto makers are far from the glory days of Ford. A once booming industry is facing issues seemingly everywhere. In Europe, auto makers are worried about EV mandates and rising costs of manufacturing. In the US there are similar worries.

On top of that the cheap Chinese EVs are flooding the market and even Tesla should get worried here. Competition is fierce and has deep pockets.

Speaking of Tesla, the one thing that shows in how much trouble the legacy auto makers are is the Tesla market cap which is 6.1x higher than Toyota’s, the biggest auto maker by volume.

It is not shocking then that the industry is trying to consolidate, seeking economics of scale in a pursuit of growth. It was reported that after announcing a strategic partnership on EVs earlier this year, Nissan and Honda are close to signing a Memorandum of Understanding for a merger negotiations.

Today I will see what can really come out of this. With focus on prediction market, I will be analyzing this in the context of given timelines and ability to execute a complicated deal in a short time.

I have been writing about geopolitics for some weeks now and I am glad to be able to look at other topics. Subscribe below and venture with me to the world of big business.

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Context

As it is often the case with Polymarket, first it is necessary to asses the market and the rules. Especially with recent issues with the Syrian market, I am wary of ending on the wrong end of a trade just because rules are ambiguous.